Prospect Risk Assessment — COS, Decision Tree EMV & Risk Factor Tornado per SPE-PRMS
Quantify geological risk with SPE-PRMS COS, run a decision tree EMV analysis, and identify which risk factor drives your prospect uncertainty with a tornado diagram.
TITLE
Prospect Risk Assessment — COS, Decision Tree EMV & Risk Factor Tornado per SPE-PRMS
PRICE
$69 USD — one-time purchase
TAGLINE
Quantify geological risk with SPE-PRMS COS, run a decision tree EMV analysis, and identify which risk factor drives your prospect uncertainty with a tornado diagram.
WHO IT'S FOR
Exploration geoscientists, reservoir engineers, and A&D professionals who need to evaluate prospect risk, calculate Expected Monetary Value, rank a portfolio, and communicate risk to management.
WHAT IT DOES
Calculates Chance of Success (COS) for up to 5 prospects using the 7-factor multiplicative SPE-PRMS methodology. Runs a decision tree EMV analysis (EMV = COS × NPV_success + (1−COS) × (−dry hole cost)) for each prospect and ranks them. Generates a risk factor tornado diagram showing which geological risk component (trap, reservoir, source, seal, timing, charge, reservoir quality) most controls total COS.
TABS INCLUDED (9)
• Instructions • Prospect Inputs — unrisked EUR, unrisked NPV, component risk factors per prospect • COS Calculation — COS %, risked EUR, risked NPV, decision flag (DRILL/REVIEW/PASS) • Risk Matrix — EUR vs COS scatter plot data; portfolio risk map • Portfolio Summary — total risked EUR, total risked NPV, avg portfolio COS • Portfolio Risked NPV — ranked bar chart data per prospect • Sensitivity Analysis — COS sensitivity to each input parameter • Decision Tree EMV — EMV per prospect; Drill/No-Drill; portfolio EMV total; ranked table • Risk Factor Tornado — each of 7 factors ±10% swing on total COS; base COS calculation
KEY FEATURES
• Decision tree: EMV = COS × NPV_success + (1−COS) × (−$3.5MM dry hole cost) • Portfolio EMV: sum of individual EMVs; prospects ranked by EMV descending • Tornado: COS low/base/high per factor; swing = COS_high − COS_low; sorted largest to smallest • COS interpretation: >35% Low risk (drill), 20–35% Moderate (review), <20% High risk (pass)
TECHNICAL SPECS
• Excel 2016+ compatible • 62 formulas across 9 tabs • 5-prospect sample dataset (Alpha through Epsilon, various COS and EUR) • MDT color scheme
SHOP COPY
9-tab prospect risk workbook: SPE-PRMS 7-factor COS, decision tree EMV analysis, Drill/No-Drill flag, portfolio EMV ranking, and risk factor tornado diagram.
SUGGESTED TAGS
prospect risk, COS, chance of success, EMV, decision tree, risk tornado, SPE-PRMS, exploration, risked volumes, Excel template, petroleum engineering, geoscience
ABOUT RESERVOIR RISK SOLUTIONS
Built by petroleum engineers for petroleum engineers. All workbooks require only Microsoft Excel (2016+) — no plugins, no subscriptions. reservoirrisksolutions.com
What you get
- Instant workbook access after payment in your Excel Library
- Formula-driven worksheet designed for petroleum workflows
- No recurring fees and no plugin requirements
FAQ
Is this a one-time purchase?
Yes. Each workbook is sold as a one-time purchase with no recurring subscription.
How do I access purchased files?
After checkout, your file appears in Excel Library under your account for download.
Do these templates require macros or plugins?
No. Templates are designed for Excel 2016+ and do not require VBA macros or external add-ins.
