Investment & Economics

Cash flow that inherits the subsurface uncertainty

Build multi-asset project economics on production that declines the way your wells actually decline, with tax, royalty, opex escalation and abandonment handled explicitly, then run it stochastically for NPV and IRR distributions instead of a single point.

Investment takes recoverable volumes staged from Volumetrics and turns them into a year-by-year cash flow. The point is not a prettier NPV: it is that the range on the economics comes from the same uncertainty you quantified in the subsurface, rather than being invented at the spreadsheet stage.

Investment is included with the Professional and Team plans. See pricing

The Investment Engine showing a 50th-percentile portfolio NPV of $340.2MM from a 4,000-iteration Monte Carlo run, a 20.9% asset-level IRR against $840MM of CAPEX, a 0.9% probability of a negative NPV, and a commercial bridge decomposing gross revenue through royalty, carbon, opex and tax.
Monte Carlo NPV and IRR with the fiscal build-up behind them. Illustrative demo case, not investment guidance.

Production that declines properly

Cash flow is only as good as the profile underneath it. Assets are modelled individually and aggregated to a portfolio:

  • Exponential, hyperbolic, or harmonic decline, with the decline rate and hyperbolic b-exponent given as ranges rather than fixed guesses
  • Multi-asset portfolios: each asset carries its own recoverable volume, GOR, shrinkage, and decline behaviour, aggregated to a single project view
  • Oil-lead and gas-lead project modes, so a dry gas development is not forced through an oil-shaped model
  • Recoverable volumes staged from Volumetrics through an explicit bridge, or entered directly

The fiscal and cost terms, stated not assumed

Most of the disagreement in an economics review is about these, so they are explicit inputs rather than buried constants:

  • Tax with loss carryforward: early-year losses are carried and offset against later profit instead of generating a phantom refund
  • Royalty rate, applied before tax on gross revenue
  • Variable opex per barrel and per Mscf, fixed opex, and sustaining capex, each escalated by the inflation index
  • Abandonment charged pre-tax in the final year, so the end-of-life cost is not quietly omitted
  • Carbon price on operational emissions, in USD per tonne CO2e
  • Real-terms price decks: oil in $/bbl and gas in $/Mscf per year, with the inflation index applied by the engine so entering an already-escalated nominal deck would double-count
  • Exchange rate handling between local currency and USD on the terms that are quoted in each

Run it stochastically, and correlate what correlates

Point-estimate economics hides the thing you most need to see. Investment runs Monte Carlo over production and price uncertainty and returns NPV and IRR as distributions, with a portfolio aggregate across assets. Oil and gas price shocks are sampled with an explicit correlation between them using Iman–Conover rank matching, because pretending oil and gas prices move independently understates downside in exactly the cases where it matters. IRR is solved by bracketing rather than a naive iteration, so sign-changing cash flows do not silently return a wrong root.

Reviewable, and exportable

Inputs are validated before a run, with engineering warnings surfaced for combinations that are legal arithmetic but questionable engineering. A commercial breakdown shows the year-by-year build from gross revenue through royalty, opex, capex, and tax to net cash flow, so a reviewer can see where the value went, not just what it totalled. Results export as CSV and structured summaries, and carry forward into Scenario Planning and the Decision Dashboard.

Either side of Investment

Common questions

Is this a reserves or a corporate planning tool?

Neither. It is project-level investment economics for screening and comparing development cases under uncertainty. It is not a reserves certification tool and does not replace your own economic governance or audit process.

Do I have to run Volumetrics first?

No. Recoverable volumes can be staged from Volumetrics through the bridge or entered directly. The bridge exists so the two do not silently disagree, not to force an order.

Are the price decks real or nominal?

Real, in today's money. The engine applies the inflation index each year, so entering a deck you have already escalated would count inflation twice.

How is the oil–gas price correlation handled?

Price shocks are sampled jointly using Iman–Conover rank correlation with a correlation coefficient you set, rather than as independent draws. This matters most in the downside tail, where independent sampling would understate combined exposure.

Connect the economics to the subsurface case

Decline-driven multi-asset cash flow, explicit fiscal terms, and NPV and IRR distributions that inherit the uncertainty you already quantified. Included with Professional and Team.